MonticelloLive

In the next 12 years the population of Arkansas will become more urban and more ethnically diverse.

Also, the number of elderly people in Arkansas will increase significantly. State agencies must begin preparing now in order to meet the increased demands for health care services that results from an aging population.

Those findings are among numerous conclusions in the recently released Arkansas 2020 report, which was commissioned by the legislature and carried out by several of the state’s universities.

Legislators heard the report during meetings at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, which was one of the schools that did much of the research. The purpose of Arkansas 2020 is for lawmakers and officials to better prepare for the challenges caused by demographic changes in Arkansas society.

For example, several state agencies provide services to the elderly. Their budgets will be strained as they are called upon to help greater numbers of senior citizens.

The number of Arkansans aged 70-74 will go up by more than 50 percent between now and the year 2020. During the same time, the number of Arkansans between 35 and 39 will go down by 4.6 percent. The number of young adults, from 20 to 24, will go up but only by 2.3 percent.

As more Arkansans retire, it could further worsen the shortages of qualified physicians, nurses and other medical providers. Public health officials say that we need more primary care physicians and nurses.

Educators are preparing for looming shortages of teachers, particularly in math and science.

The number of Spanish-speaking people in Arkansas, which recently topped 150,000, is expected to grow to 240,000 by the year 2020.

Now, Hispanics represent about 5.3 percent of the population of Arkansas and in 2020 they will represent about 7 percent. The report specifically noted that its population estimates do not include undocumented immigrants or illegals. In other words, the growth in the Hispanic population will be among citizens who live and work legally in Arkansas.

The population of Arkansas is steadily becoming more urban. In 2000, about 57 percent of Arkansans lived in urban areas and in 2020 the proportion will increase to 61 percent who live in cities.

Much of the report focuses on the growing health care needs of an aging population. One result probably will be an expansion in the capacity of nursing homes and hospitals. The Health Department and divisions of the Human Services Department will enhance preventive measures, in anticipation of more people suffering from serious and chronic conditions like diabetes, obesity and hypertension.

The Correction Department is building a prison unit specifically for a growing geriatric population of inmates, but cautioned that in 20 years it may not be sufficient.

Correction officials estimate that 10 percent of inmates will eventually die in prison, and with increased aging of the inmate population that percentage will increase. An inmate is considered geriatric at age 50, rather than at 65 as in the free world. That is because in their early years so many prisoners led unhealthy lifestyles marked by abuse of drugs and alcohol.